Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.308731 2.452642 2.605088 2.779319 2.973835 3.185374 3.434265
2025-05-11 2.085465 2.279927 2.496293 2.757343 3.067186 3.427715 3.885917
2025-05-18 1.943248 2.165022 2.420045 2.739544 3.135927 3.621351 4.277413
2025-05-25 1.831781 2.070118 2.351163 2.713790 3.180019 3.775861 4.625470
2025-06-01 1.741100 1.990481 2.290659 2.687619 3.213810 3.912039 4.957683
2025-06-08 1.676959 1.937321 2.256663 2.688754 3.278384 4.090075 5.367583
2025-06-15 1.632893 1.905261 2.245396 2.716004 3.377015 4.321774 5.889217
2025-06-22 1.566157 1.840207 2.186833 2.674165 3.373271 4.400948 6.177010
2025-06-29 1.504323 1.778147 2.128301 2.627498 3.357082 4.456986 6.431008
2025-07-06 1.443478 1.714550 2.064304 2.568697 3.317435 4.470703 6.609757
2025-07-13 1.421908 1.701297 2.066683 2.602928 3.418319 4.717441 7.259417
2025-07-20 1.405304 1.693546 2.075582 2.646201 3.535405 5.003123 8.047140
2025-07-27 1.387571 1.684027 2.082181 2.687438 3.654525 5.310978 8.972162
2025-08-03 1.351044 1.647454 2.049100 2.667011 3.671501 5.437492 9.527216
2025-08-10 1.318189 1.614624 2.019727 2.650176 3.692431 5.572898 10.141410
2025-08-17 1.285209 1.580408 1.986831 2.625801 3.698128 5.678918 10.712560
2025-08-24 1.254137 1.547794 1.954889 2.601022 3.700845 5.778782 11.299679
2025-08-31 1.232352 1.527456 1.939927 2.602096 3.748757 5.976382 12.242002
2025-09-07 1.218714 1.518093 1.940554 2.627897 3.842750 6.284169 13.667720
2025-09-14 1.188012 1.483449 1.902300 2.588280 3.813149 6.317363 14.186328
2025-09-21 1.157556 1.448381 1.862323 2.544066 3.772010 6.320031 14.602701
2025-09-28 1.125399 1.410122 1.816479 2.488316 3.705733 6.258236 14.758551
2025-10-05 1.117630 1.406857 1.823343 2.520777 3.810309 6.610923 16.768848